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Strategic Scan

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Chapter 1: Demographics

Chapter 2: Economy

Chapter 3: Housing

Chapter 4: Development Trends

Chapter 5: Transportation

Chapter 6: Water Resources

Chapter 7: Public Safety

Chapter 8: Civic Engagement

Sources

Strategic Scan 2010 (pdf)

Introduction
The extent to which the City is able to act strategically relies on having a good understanding of current demographic, economic, and social conditions, as well as past and projected trends. This document is intended to serve as a “strategic scan” of some key trends and conditions that are relevant to City government and future policy decisions. While many of these trends and conditions are beyond the capacity of the City government to alter, they serve to describe the environment and context within which City policy is formed and municipal services are provided.

The data provided here represents only a fraction of available data, but it does present a baseline for discussion about Rockville’s future. The Strategic Scan focuses attention on the multidimensional implications of change and the interrelationships of population, household and employment growth, evolving demographics, economic conditions, land use and development, City revenues, the provision of City services, maintenance of public facilities and capital improvements.

The Strategic Scan is a source of data for the City-wide Comprehensive Master Plan (CMP), which is undergoing revision pursuant to state law. The CMP provides input to development decisions, and is a guide for planning capital improvements and municipal services.

Data and analysis of local and regional trends of importance to Rockville are organized in the Strategic Scan under the chapter headings of Demographics, Economy, Housing, Development Trends, Transportation, Water Resources, Public Safety and Civic Engagement. The intention is to update this report every two years. The next update will include information from the 2010 Census.

Data Collection and Analysis
In Spring 2009, the Long-Range Planning Division from the Department of Community Planning and Development Services (CPDS) reviewed the 2002 CMP to identify key data categories. Staff interviewed 15 City Staff members in various departments and the Executive Director of Rockville Economic Development, Inc. to learn what each of them saw as the most significant trends and issues facing the City, and to collect internallyproduced studies and reports. Most data were collected in 2009 and through the first quarter of 2010. Staff concentrated data collection efforts towards those data sets that can be updated on a regular basis at little or no cost to the City. The Long-Range Planning Division analyzed and interpreted the collected data and identified major themes, in coordination with other departments.

Forecasts of population, households and employment were developed by CPDS staff in conjunction with the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (MWCOG) staff for its Round 8 projections exercise. (Information on the Cooperative Forecasting Program is available at: www.mwcog. org/planning/planning trends). Future growth can vary widely from the projections, especially when projections cover several decades. Economic/market forces and development that occurs outside of the City are external factors that could alter the trajectory of future growth. Zoning changes and restrictions on development (i.e. APFO) are internally imposed factors, changes to which also could alter Rockville’s future growth scenario.Forecasts are based on the best information available at the time. They take into consideration development projects with official approval, but also anticipate development for which there are not yet specific projects.

Major external sources included decennial Census data and sample data from the American Community Survey (ACS). Although it is relatively new, the ACS will provide regularly updated demographic and economic data at a level of geography previously achieved only by the decennial census. More information on COG forecasts, the Census, ACS and other data sources is provided at the end of this report.